AGP Executive Report

Brazil’s Runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow polling edge over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Sunday’s vote, while accusations and social-media disputes dominate the campaign. A rightward shift in Congress is expected regardless of the winner, with potential consequences for the courts, environmental policy and rights protections. Ecuador Politics: Former presidential candidate Luisa González has been arrested amid an investigation into alleged irregularities in campaign financing and spending, her party leader says. Venezuela’s Oil: Experts say the country’s claimed 303 billion barrels of proven reserves are overstated; they estimate the realistic figure at 60 billion to 120 billion, a gap that could reshape expectations for new investment. Cuba-US Tensions: Havana accuses Washington of pressuring countries ahead of an October 28 UN vote on the US embargo; the US has not responded to the latest allegation. Trade: Mexico has suspended poultry imports from Brazil after a Newcastle disease outbreak at a farm in Santa Catarina, putting a key export market at risk.

Brazil’s Runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro holds a one-point lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a new poll ahead of Sunday’s presidential vote. The candidates are also seeking to disqualify each other over alleged social-media abuses. Mexico’s Security Tensions: Former Chihuahua prosecutor César Jáuregui Moreno has been indicted on treason charges and placed in pretrial detention over CIA agents’ participation in a drug-lab raid without federal authorization. Cuba’s Crisis: Havana is seeking closer economic ties with South Korea as blackouts and fuel shortages deepen; the UN General Assembly is due to vote next week on a resolution calling for an end to the U.S. embargo. Argentina and the Falklands: President Javier Milei says Argentina will pursue sovereignty claims through diplomacy, as a dispute over a UK-backed oil project heads toward an international tribunal hearing. Venezuela’s Tax Changes: President Delcy Rodríguez announced the elimination of business fiscal machines, saying a new digital system will simplify tax administration and improve collections. Colombia’s Museum Row: Protests have erupted after President Abelardo de la Espriella’s government removed exhibits on social movements, with critics warning that the changes erase parts of the country’s history.

Brazil’s Runoff: With Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight race ahead of Sunday’s vote, Brazil condemned Argentina’s Javier Milei for suggesting election fraud and attacking the country’s voting system. Extreme Weather: The UN warned El Niño could reach unprecedented strength, with Pacific temperatures potentially 3.8°C above average in November–January and effects lasting beyond the year’s end. Cuba–U.S. Tensions: Russia condemned Florida’s arrest warrant for Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft, calling the charges politically motivated. Falklands Dispute: Argentina’s challenge to oil exploration at the Sea Lion project heads to a maritime tribunal hearing on November 10–11; the field is estimated to hold 1.7 billion barrels. Mexico’s Water Safety: Greenpeace found fecal contamination in samples from all 17 tested wells, water points and sinkholes in Yucatán, raising concerns about pig farms and wastewater.

Brazil’s Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied ahead of Sunday’s vote, with phone theft—about 830,000 cases last year—a major security issue. An electoral court gave Meta 24 hours to show it treats both candidates equally. Colombia: A landslide at an illegal gold mine killed 14 people and injured seven. Cuba: Washington and Havana clashed at the UN ahead of an October 27–28 vote on the US embargo; a Florida arrest warrant for former leader Raúl Castro has added to tensions. Bolivia’s Energy Crisis: Falling gas reserves and exports are worsening fuel shortages and economic strain, as the country pursues reforms and a proposed $1.9 billion IMF package. Mexico’s Water: Tests in Yucatán found severe fecal and chemical contamination in wells and cenotes, with illegal industrial pig farms identified as a threat to the region’s groundwater.

Brazil’s Runoff: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro pledged to restore tax breaks for the events industry if elected Sunday. The race is also testing Meta: Brazil’s electoral court ordered the platform to show equal treatment of Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with a deadline expiring Tuesday. Colombia Mine Disaster: A landslide at an illegal gold mine in Nariño killed 14 people, including 12 women, and injured seven, highlighting the risks of unregulated mining. Cuba-U.S. Tensions: Florida issued an arrest warrant for former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of two civilian planes. Russia condemned the move as politically motivated as Washington and Havana trade accusations at the UN ahead of a sanctions vote. Venezuela’s Oil: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to urge India’s Reliance Industries to refine more Venezuelan crude and consider producing oil in the country. Mexico Security Row: Former Chihuahua prosecutor César Jáuregui was arrested over allegations he allowed armed CIA agents to join a drug-lab raid without federal authorization. Biodiversity: Colombia and Armenia launched a coalition, joined by Brazil, Mexico and Peru, to help endangered species recover in the wild.

Mexico Trade: Trump says Washington and Mexico City are close to a deal, even as tariff disputes weigh on auto production and exports. Colombia Mining: A collapse at an illegal gold mine in Nariño killed at least 14 people and injured seven, renewing alarm over deadly informal mining. Brazil Election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro traded insults in their first televised debate ahead of Sunday’s runoff, with the challenger seeking to end Lula’s rule. Cuba-US Tensions: Havana condemned Florida’s arrest warrant for Raúl Castro, while US and Cuban officials clashed at the UN ahead of a vote on the US embargo. Venezuela’s Future: Washington’s plan to prioritize economic recovery before elections leaves the timeline for a democratic transition uncertain; Caracas is also working with UNCTAD and CAF on export diversification. Argentina Energy: Milei touted record oil output and exports, presenting the Vaca Muerta shale boom as proof his reforms are working.

Brazil’s Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro traded personal attacks in their first debate, days before a tight presidential vote. Lula is defending his economic record; Bolsonaro is targeting debt and corruption. Colombia’s Culture Clash: Police used tear gas and water cannons at protests over the removal of museum exhibits on LGBTQ+ rights, feminism and political killings, escalating a fight over the government’s cultural agenda. Mexico’s Water Crisis: Protests in Guadalajara turned violent as residents demanded action over worsening shortages. Ecuador’s Power Crunch: Falling hydroelectric output has extended lengthy outages for businesses, while electricity imports from Colombia remain limited. Amazon at a Crossroads: Brazil’s deforestation fell to its lowest level in nearly four decades, but the election and El Niño pose risks to those gains. Energy Strains: Bolivia faces declining gas production and growing import needs, while Cuba’s deepening fuel crisis is prompting the government to open oil facilities to private investment.

Brazil’s Runoff: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro face off in their first televised debate, a week before a close Oct. 25 vote. Both sides rallied Sunday as they court millions of voters who sat out the first round. Police Accountability: Bahia recorded 1,570 deaths in police operations in 2025, the highest figure among Brazil’s states. Families say cases rarely reach court; one mother says key footage disappeared after her son was killed. Venezuela: Opposition parties reaffirmed exiled Nobel laureate María Corina Machado as their leader and proposed a 14-point path to democracy, including free elections and the release of political prisoners. Mexico: Hurricane Trudy brought warnings of dangerous storm surge, flooding and mudslides along the Pacific coast. Separately, authorities arrested a former Chihuahua prosecutor over an alleged unauthorized CIA role in a drug raid. Industry: Brazil’s Transpetro has begun construction on a 13-vessel, $278 million order, part of a wider plan to expand the fleet and support local shipyards. Environment: Brazil says Amazon deforestation fell to its lowest level since 1988.

Amazon Security: Indigenous leaders from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are taking calls for action against illegal mining, logging and drug trafficking to a U.N. conference in Vienna, urging governments to target the networks’ finances and include Indigenous communities in protecting their lands. Peru: A new proposal to curb illegal Amazon economies emphasizes family farming, land protection and local knowledge as weak public services and unresolved land conflicts help criminal activity spread. Mexico: Authorities arrested former Chihuahua attorney general César Jáuregui over allegations he allowed U.S. agents to join a drug-lab raid without federal approval. Brazil’s Election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro faced off in their first runoff debate, with Lula’s campaign also seeking an investigation after Meta disabled an advertising account. Separately, Amazon deforestation fell to a record low, down 42%, according to Brazilian figures. Extreme Weather: Hurricane Trudy brought heavy rain and strong winds to Mexico’s Pacific coast, with flood and landslide risks prompting warnings. Cuba: Private businesses are increasingly sourcing fuel from the United States as the island’s energy crisis deepens and traditional suppliers fall away.

Brazil’s Runoff: With the October 25 vote approaching, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by about two points in recent polls. Right-wing figures are also promoting prediction-market odds, despite the market’s uncertain reliability; a court ordered Meta to treat both candidates equally after Lula’s campaign alleged his accounts were restricted. Mexico’s CIA Probe: Authorities arrested former Chihuahua attorney general César Jáuregui over allegations he allowed CIA agents to join a drug-lab raid without federal authorization. Bolivia Investigation: A judge ordered six months’ preventive detention for former La Paz prosecutor Luis Carlos Torrez, accused of drug trafficking and links to a criminal organization in a widening case involving senior judicial officials. Amazon: Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell 42% to a record low, a major environmental gain ahead of the country’s election. Tulum Tourism: American Airlines is cutting flights to Tulum as demand slumps; the destination’s seasonal flight capacity is down by about half, while nearby Cancún has seen a much smaller decline.

Amazon Conservation: Brazil says deforestation fell 42% to 3,335 square kilometres, the lowest level since satellite records began in 1988 — a major environmental gain now in focus ahead of the presidential runoff. Brazil Election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are heading into an Oct. 25 contest, while scrutiny of Meta’s treatment of candidates’ accounts adds to concerns over online influence in the campaign. Flood Emergency: Rising Paraná River waters have displaced families in Paraguay and Argentina, affecting about 2,000 people in Paraguay and forcing 222 evacuations in Corrientes. Mexico Security: Three men each received 158 years and nine months in prison for killing two Australian brothers and their American friend during a 2024 surfing trip in Baja California.

Colombia Telecoms: Millicom has completed its takeover of Movistar’s parent company, replacing the brand with Tigo and pledging $2.6 billion in investment over four years. Mexico Storm: Tropical Storm Rachel’s death toll has risen to eight in Baja California, with two people still missing. Amazon: Brazil says forest loss fell 42% to 3,335 square kilometers in the year to July, the lowest level since records began in 1988. Brazil Election: The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is tightening; Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to treat both candidates equally after Lula’s campaign alleged platform bias. Workers’ Rights: Brazil approved a 40-hour workweek with two days off and no cut in pay, a key Lula pledge ahead of the vote. Regional Power: Colombia has resumed electricity exports to drought-hit Ecuador, easing pressure on a strained grid. Venezuela: Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty to new U.S. charges alleging a conspiracy to commit torture.

Brazil’s Economy: Economic activity rose 0.3% in August, matching forecasts, as industry led growth. The central bank expects the economy to slow next year. Colombia’s Protests: The UN human rights office warned that President Abelardo de la Espriella’s new protest decree could enable police repression and weaken safeguards for demonstrations. Argentina’s Universities: Thousands marched in Buenos Aires demanding that Javier Milei’s government implement a law funding public universities; lawmakers failed to secure a quorum for a related debate. Brazil’s Runoff: An electoral judge ordered Meta to treat Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro equally across its platforms ahead of the October 25 vote, imposing a daily fine for violations. Congress has also approved a shorter workweek, a key Lula campaign pledge. Venezuela’s Maduro: U.S. prosecutors accuse Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores of conspiring to torture political opponents and detainees. Both pleaded not guilty and called the allegations false.

Brazil’s Runoff: The Senate approved a constitutional amendment ending the six-day workweek and gradually cutting the maximum week from 44 to 40 hours without reducing pay. President Lula is touting the change as he faces Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 25 runoff. Venezuela: Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty in New York to new U.S. charges alleging they conspired to torture opponents. Maduro called the accusations false. Falklands Dispute: Argentina’s bill to toughen penalties over oil exploration near the Falklands stalled in Congress, even as Buenos Aires seeks to halt the Sea Lion project at an international tribunal. China voiced support for Argentina’s sovereignty claim at the UN. Border Security: Peru and Ecuador are coordinating intelligence and operations to stop illegal mining and logging networks from shifting across their border. Cuba’s Energy: Renewables now supply 21.4% of the island’s electricity, according to its foreign minister, as fuel restrictions deepen pressure on power supplies.

Brazil’s Election: The Senate approved a 40-hour workweek, a boost for Lula ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff. His campaign also plans to complain to the OAS, accusing Meta of interfering in the race. Colombia’s Protests: Thousands joined the first major demonstrations against President Abelardo de la Espriella. The marches were largely peaceful, despite a new decree tightening rules for protests. Venezuela’s Talks: The government and opposition began a third round of dialogue on a political transition as the U.S. lifted sanctions on National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez. Amazon Under Threat: New analysis found illegal clearing caused more than 90% of forest loss in surveyed Indigenous territories in Bolivia’s Amazon between 2003 and 2023. Separately, Brazil is investigating whether a surge in Amazon fires was deliberately set for political reasons. Mexico’s Telecom Shift: AT&T agreed to sell its Mexican wireless business to Televisa and Fintech Holdings for $2 billion, reshaping competition with América Móvil. Argentina’s Fiscal Debate: The IMF is pressing for VAT exemptions to be removed as part of efforts to broaden tax revenue and rein in the deficit.

Brazil’s Runoff: The Senate approved cutting the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without reducing pay, a popular measure that could help Lula ahead of the Oct. 25 vote. Colombia’s Protests: Thousands marched against President Abelardo de la Espriella’s proposed cuts as his government expanded police powers to intervene in demonstrations. Colombia-Israel Ties: Colombia opened an embassy in Jerusalem, reversing the previous administration’s break with Israel and drawing condemnation from Kuwait and the Arab League. Venezuela: Washington lifted sanctions on National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez as U.S.-Venezuela engagement grows. Cuba’s Energy Crisis: Havana will let domestic and foreign private firms explore for oil and gas under a new law, while accusing Washington of pressuring countries ahead of a U.N. vote on the embargo. Argentina-UK Dispute: Buenos Aires asked an international tribunal to suspend a British-authorized oil project near the Falklands, citing its claims to the disputed waters. Mexico: A judge closed the case against former immigration chief Francisco Garduño over the 2023 detention-center fire that killed 40 migrants; victims’ advocates plan to appeal.